Forecasting Through the Shoulder Season
How to build a forecast that holds up when demand is uncertain and the calendar is quiet.
Shoulder periods are difficult because demand is neither clearly compressed nor reliably weak. The forecast should therefore be updated more frequently and built from several signals rather than copied from the budget.
Start with on-the-books rooms, current pickup, historical pickup by segment, known events, airline or transport patterns where relevant, and the position of the competitive set. Separate confirmed group demand from tentative blocks and apply realistic wash assumptions.
Use more than one scenario. A base forecast supports normal planning, while an upside and downside range makes pricing and staffing decisions less fragile. Each scenario should have explicit triggers that tell the team when to move from one view to another.
Forecast accuracy improves when assumptions are recorded. The value is not only the final number; it is the discipline of learning why actual demand differed from expectations.
Practical takeaway
In uncertain periods, a transparent range with clear triggers is more useful than a single confident-looking number.
